RBA did not consider cash rate hike for first time since MarchBullock reveals the Reserve Bank didn’t consider raising the rate – the first time it has done so since March, our economics correspondent Peter Hannam reliably informs me. She says:
We didn’t explicitly consider an interest rate rise at this meeting. The format of the meeting was slightly different. The way we framed the discussion really was around what had changed since August, and what would we need to see to go either a raise in interest rates or a lowering in interest rates? So there wasn’t an explicit alternative in the sense that I’ve talked about in the past.
ShareUpdated at 07.59 CESTKey eventsShow key events onlyPlease turn on JavaScript to use this featurePeter HannamRBA won’t read too much into low inflation figure for AugustIn odd timing, today’s RBA decision comes a day ahead of the ABS’s release of inflation figures for August.Economists are expecting inflation to drop to below 3% from 3.5% in July. That’s only the headline number, though, and the RBA wants to see more about what inflation looks like after you strip volatile items – or government rebates for energy and other services.“Headline inflation is expected to fall further temporarily, as a result of federal and state cost-of-living relief,” the bank said. “However, our current forecasts do not see inflation returning sustainably to target until 2026.”And yes, the bank continues not to rule anything in or out. Code for keeping the (unlikely) option of another interest rate rise.ShareUpdated at 09.52 CESTAdaptor causes EV fire in Melbourne garageAn electric vehicle fire broke out at a Melbourne garage this morning due to a travel adaptor connected to an aftermarket charging lead, Fire Rescue Victoria say.Two people and a dog evacuated the property before firefighters arrived within 5 minutes after being called at 9.12am to the 10-metre by 5-metre garage in Glen Waverley.The firefighters brought the blaze under control at 9.20am, but crews remained at the scene for several hours to knock down the fire and clear the structure of smoke.The Fire Investigation Unit (FIU) determined the fire was not caused by the electric vehicle but from a travel adaptor connected to an aftermarket charging lead.Guardian Australia understands firefighters in Victoria are responding to almost one fire each day caused by rechargeable lithium-ion batteries.Fire Rescue Victoria say the reasons rechargeable lithium-ion batteries can catch fire include overcharging or use of non-compatible charging equipment, overheating, physical damage including crushing, piercing or vibrations, and short-circuiting, battery cell malfunctions or system faults.FRV recommends purchasing products from a reputable supplier and following the manufacturer’s instructions.ShareUpdated at 09.50 CESTJosh ButlerElectoral reforms to see disclosure of all donations over $1,000The Labor government’s long-awaited reforms to the electoral system will be unveiled “in coming weeks”, special minister of state, Don Farrell, said, in a speech confirming caps on donations given and received in elections.Speaking to the McKell Institute in Sydney, Farrell said the changes were about “opening up the system to sunlight”. He said:
The reforms I will introduce will see all donations over $1,000 disclosed publicly – and importantly, they will be disclosed in days, not months.Our reforms will include both a cap on donations received, and a cap on campaign spending. Limiting the amount that can be received from any individual donor will stop the billionaires that seek to influence our elections – while not preventing genuine political involvement, or the established right of political communication.
Farrell spoke of “a series of reasonable caps”, with comments seemingly suggesting the possibility of limiting not only the amount of money that can be given, but also the amount that can be spent in a certain seat. He did not specify the amount of those caps, but noted “some federal contests” spending over $3m – possibly an indicator that the cap may be set lower than that level.Without giving a firm timeline, Farrell said “in coming weeks I will be introducing fundamental reforms to our electoral system.” Parliament is due to resume in early October, with just four scheduled sitting weeks before the end of the year.The next election is due by May 2025.ShareUpdated at 09.42 CESTMan dies at recycling facility in SydneyA 31-year-old man has died in a workplace incident at a recycling facility in southern Sydney earlier today.Emergency services were called to the facility at midday. Paramedics attempted to treat the man but he died at the scene.A report will be prepared for the Coroner and the incident has been referred to SafeWork NSW.ShareUpdated at 09.32 CESTDentist charged after sex-related assault in SydneyA 60-year-old dental practitioner has been charged over a sex-related assault police allege he committed after causing a woman to take an intoxicating substance during a job trial in Sydney.NSW police released a statement this afternoon that on Tuesday 10 September officers received a report that a woman had allegedly been sexually touched during a job trial at a dental centre in Rockdale.Police then executed a crime scene warrant at a business on Thursday 19 September, after which:
A 60-year-old man was arrested and taken to St George Police Station, where he was charged with cause to take intoxicating substance to commit indictable offence and aggravated sexually touch another person.
He appeared before Sutherland local court on Friday 20 September 2024, where he was formally refused bail and will appear before Downing Centre local on Tuesday 19 November 2024.ShareUpdated at 08.54 CESTLet’s recap Bullock’s post-board meeting press conference:

She stressed the reserve bank wants to see a reduction in inflation before there’s any cut in rates.

A rate hike wasn’t an alternative that the board considered.

She also foreshadowed the possibility of some good inflation data coming in the monthly figure for August which will be released tomorrow.
ShareNo interest rate cuts in ‘near term’: BullockBullock is asked about whether she still stands by the previous assessment that rate cuts are unlikely in the near term. She does.
The board did discuss whether or not the messaging should change. As I said at the beginning, we didn’t explicitly consider an interest rate rise because the framing of the discussion was what has changed since last time. And the assessment was not enough, and it was mixed enough for us not to change our view from last time. Having said that, the message clearly from the board is that in the near term it does not see interest rate cuts.
ShareUpdated at 08.06 CESTRBA expecting lower energy prices after cost-of-living relief: Bullock to Peter HannamSpeaking of Peter, his question to Bullock in that press conference is:
You mentioned just then that progress on bringing the underlying inflation rate is likely to remain slow in the September quarter. Given that we’re not getting the monthly figures until tomorrow, and then there’s obviously the September quarter coming out at the end of October, what are the indicators that you’re looking at to kind of come to that conclusion?
Bullock responds that the monthly inflation indicator is “quite volatile”.
It moves around quite a lot because it’s only partial. It doesn’t capture everything. The one tomorrow will capture some more services than the earlier ones. So that will be important because what we’ve seen in most recent inflation figures is that services has been the thing that’s been holding inflation up.
One of the other important things we’ve noticed in recent inflation numbers is that building cost inflation has been relatively high as well. … One thing that we are expecting with tomorrow’s monthly CPI is that we will expect to see the cost-of-living relief come into play. And what that’s going to do is that’s going to lower energy prices.
Fuel prices have also come down in recent months. So we’re expecting it could well be on current forecasts that the inflation rate, the headline inflation rate in fact, comes in 12 months, ended below 3%. So that is important because it’s reflecting cost-of-living relief. So it is reflected in the prices that people are seeing. But it’s not really reflective of the underlying inflation pulse, which is more what are we observing happening with services really which is the crux of the matter. And what we think that reflects is that demand is still a little bit above supply, that gap is still remaining there. And that’s what that inflation pressure is reflective of.
ShareUpdated at 08.01 CESTRBA did not consider cash rate hike for first time since MarchBullock reveals the Reserve Bank didn’t consider raising the rate – the first time it has done so since March, our economics correspondent Peter Hannam reliably informs me. She says:
We didn’t explicitly consider an interest rate rise at this meeting. The format of the meeting was slightly different. The way we framed the discussion really was around what had changed since August, and what would we need to see to go either a raise in interest rates or a lowering in interest rates? So there wasn’t an explicit alternative in the sense that I’ve talked about in the past.
ShareUpdated at 07.59 CESTProgress on underlying inflation needed before reducing interest rates: BullockBullock summarises:
Overall, the weaker-than-expected momentum over the first half of the year and the mixed picture from recent indicators suggests there’s some risk that consumption growth could remain subdued for a little longer than we previously anticipated.
So what does this all mean? Well, the recent data, I think you’d agree, have been a little mixed. But overall they reinforce the need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance and remain vigilant to the upside risks to inflation.
The board needs to be confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target, before any decisions are made about a reduction in interest rates. So we really need to see progress on underlying inflation coming back down toward the target.
ShareUpdated at 07.57 CESTWeek productivity growth weighing on supply growth: BullockBullock says wages growth has passed its peak, but it remains high relative to productivity growth, which has been weak for some time:
Weak productivity growth weighs on growth in the economy’s supply capacity. So compared to a scenario where productivity growth was stronger, weak productivity growth means it takes longer for the gap between demand and supply to close, and therefore longer for inflation to turn to target.
Although goods inflation has returned around about, normal services inflation remains elevated. Housing prices continue to grow strongly because of the imbalance between strong demand and lack of new housing supply. But the pace of growth in advertised rents has slowed a bit.
GDP growth is very subdued, at 0.2% in the June quarter, that was in line with our August statement.
Private domestic demand declined in the quarter, driven by weaker than expected household consumption. June quarter national accounts and other recent data suggest a slightly softer outlook for the economic activity in the near term than what we were expecting in August. Although there have been some early signs of a pick up spending in spending based on bank transaction data for August, but that’s very preliminary.
ShareUpdated at 07.50 CESTLabour market ‘remains relatively tight’: BullockBullock goes on to discuss jobs data:
Progress in getting underlying inflation down has slowed, and it’s likely to have remained slow in the September quarter. We judge that the level of demand is still above the economy’s ability to supply goods and services, but that gap is closing.
The labor market is still easing, but it remains relatively tight. And we saw again last week solid growth in jobs. I know some people are worried about a faster deterioration in the jobs market.
So we are keeping a close eye on this. But based on the most recent data, employment continues to grow and the rate of lay-offs remains very low. And while forward indicators have eased, some such as jobs vacancies have remained elevated. And we’re still hearing stories from our liaison that the availability of labor remains a bit of a constraint on some businesses.
ShareUpdated at 07.47 CESTTeen boy fatally stabbed in Melbourne food courtA teenage boy is dead from a stabbing in a Melbourne shopping centre food court, which police allege occurred after an altercation between the victim and another male.Emergency services were called to an outdoor food court area in Melton West shopping centre just before midday.They found the boy with life-threatening injuries and CPR was commenced, but he died at the scene.Detectives are investigating the fatal stabbing, they say:
It’s believed there may have been an altercation between the victim and another male.
The exact circumstances surrounding the teenager’s death are yet to be determined and no arrests have been made at this stage.
ShareUpdated at 07.44 CESTInflation ‘proving to be sticky’: RBA governorThe governor of the reserve bank, Michelle Bullock, is now speaking after its decision – she says inflation is still above the bank’s target and “it’s proving to be sticky”:
We’ve considered in detail whether our current settings are sufficiently restrictive and judged that based on what we know at the moment, rates will remain on hold for the time being.
Inflation has come down a long way since it peaked in 2022, both in Australia and overseas. Part of this was the resolution of supply chain issues and energy prices easing, and monetary policy has also been doing its job. But inflation is still above our target and it’s proving to be sticky.
ShareUpdated at 07.42 CESTGovernment ‘attempting to manipulate headline inflation’: Angus TaylorThe shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, is giving a press conference with his reaction to today’s RBA decision. Taylor has accused the government of manipulating headline inflation, but he says “the reserve bank is seeing straight through government manipulation”:
There are a number of points that the reserve bank highlighted and challenges they highlighted in their statement today. The first is it must be a sustainable reduction in inflation, not a temporary reduction in inflation. That’s manipulated by the government. And they say, and I quote, underlying inflation is more indicative of inflation momentum than headline. And it remains too high. Now the point here is that the government is attempting to manipulate headline inflation, and the reserve bank is seeing straight through government manipulation. The government needs to focus on doing the real job, which is to bring core inflation down so that interest rates can come down. So Australians standards of living can be restored to where it should be.
ShareUpdated at 07.40 CEST